[en]The Last Days of Europe

[Elvain]

I'm just reading a book of Walter Laqueur. It's about demographical estimates for European states. It seems we are in deep demographical crisis.

According to this book populations of European states will dramaticaly decrease. Here are just some numbers: (country, population in 2000, 2050, 2100. Sometimes only 2000 and 2050)
France: 60, 55, 43
United Kingdom: 60, 53, 45
Germany: 82, 61, 32
Italy: 57, 37, 15
Spain: 39, 28, 12
Ukraine: 45, 19, -
Bulgaria: 7, 2.3, -
Latvia: 2.2, 0.6, -
Lithuania: 3.6, 0.9, -
Russia: 145, 32, -
Croatia: 4.5, 0.9, -
Hungary: 10, 1.8, -
Czech republic: 10, 1.7, -

On the other side of Mediterranean (in 2050):
Turkey: 100
Egypt: 114
Algeria: 45
Morocco: 45

These estimates don't calculate migration, but do calculate actual imigrants living in Europe (that's why the decrease isn't so dramatic in United Kingdom and France)
--
oh, maybe, could someone move the thread to the Webmaster's Inn?

[Dobber]

Elvain, why did you have to type so much? This is heavy on my shoulders as I tote it to the "Webmasters Inn"! There finally the load is gone! Now for some muscle ointment! :biggrin:

[Rnett]

According to Mayan belief, something bad will happen to all of us on Dec. 21, 2012.

[Mircoslavux]

I do not believe this data Elvain,
how was that calculated based on which years...?

[Angryminer]

Without migration that may be possible. But, fact is, there is migration, and thus the data is just plain wrong.
If there was no migration most of germany would be empty today - germany lives on immigrants and will continue to do so.

Angryminer

[Elvain]

Thanks, Dobber :go:

These data are based on fertility of actual productive generations and fertility in Europe in last 50 years(Western Europe, not former communist countries where monitored period is 20 years). Those numbers are medium estimates which are between optimistic and pesimistic estimates.
The data also works with growth of average age of death. Average age of an European in 2050 is expected to be 53 years (today it is 37) what makes Europe the oldest continent even now!

For instance in Czech republic the average number of children per one "productive" woman in 1.3 (while in the Middle East it's around 5)

The imigrant fertility is included but not people who will imigrate to those states in next 50 years. Without immigrants, European population would decrease dramaticaly much sooner.

I don't see it too impossible considering that Many of my friends are from just 2 children families and the number of single children in family is much higher than number of 3 children families. In Czech republic there is very "strong" generation of those born in 1970's, though the fertility here is decreasing while it should increase (just because there are much more productive people that several years ago)

One more number from the book: in Bruxelles, 55% of newly born children are muslims! In population under 15, muslims are 25%. It doesn't seem to be too impossible

btw, governments started to limit the imigration in last several years. And all in all, if there would still be some migration to Europe that would mean that total number of european population would be higher, but ethnic and cultural Europeans will become minority among muslim Arabs, Turks and Africans (in the UK among Indians and Carribeans)